A decade after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that divided the nation and triggered turmoil, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the political, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in academia but very few politicians or activists are willing to participate with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Each composes two articles that seek impartiality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and social statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover identity markers, duties, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said O’Toole. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters claim they prefer unity but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his era is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified arguments, he stated. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will ultimately not succeed but all factions has possesses important lessons to learn from the alternative positions."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster should engage with the discussion, said O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
